The Maronite Cause

This is usually the second most common objection to the Christian self-determination project.

Many people who are against partition or confederalism use this myth as an excuse to oppose the plight of their own community. They say that any kind of partition or wide federalism will obstruct the Lebanese economic cycle, making all regions non-viable economically, usually concluding it with “don’t you remember the famine of World War I when the mountain was isolated?”.

If you answer the economic question, they move the goalpost to security: “But any Christian state will be immediately under attack from the majority Muslim neighborhood, and blood will be spilled”. They usually conclude with the idea that a Christian majority state can never know peace or be secure.

These fears are understandable, but they are rooted in yesterday’s fears. Let’s take a closer look and deconstruct these myths.

Since the main center of gravity of Christian demographics and politics is in Mount Lebanon (the historical Mount Lebanon, not the Muhafaza), we’ll focus our discussion on that.

Our focus here on Mount Lebanon opens the question about Christian regions that are far from the center, but this is something that we’ll get back to in another article, as it deserves its own full discussion.

Economic Feasibility of Mount Lebanon

The famine of World War I is always thrown like a veto on the economic viability of a Mountain State, but it proves less than critics think. The mountain then had no ports under its control, no modern logistics, no surplus electricity or cold chain, no diaspora air bridge, no legal instruments to contract corridors.

On top of it all, it suffered from a land and sea blockade under wartime conditions on top of Ottoman mandatory military service and material requisitions, and in addition to locusts and disease.

A contemporary mountain state operates in a different world: air and maritime access can be easily addressed through ports and airports that fall under the authority of any future Mountain administration. If, for some reason, access to Beirut and Tripoli ports becomes impossible, Jounieh port can be expanded in under a year, and another airport can be fitted in the same timeframe.

In terms of infrastructure, the truth is our entire infrastructure crisis can be solved within 3-5 years with proper governance. The entire Mountain needs one thermal electricity plant to supply all its needs, and local utilities are already being backed up by hydro and solar, and can be expanded to cushion any energy shocks. If needed, our Christian diaspora can be mobilized to build not one, but several small-sized nations in a few years.

The technological reality today means that the question of food and energy security is obsolete: states don’t even need to grow their own food anymore (although that would be a big plus), they just need to run well enough to be able to afford their needs on the international marketplace.

However, even on the food security question, we’re not in 1915 anymore, where individual farmers had to till the mountain terraces by hand, without access to machines, fertilizer, pesticides, and modern agricultural knowledge. If needed, the mountain can produce a considerable amount of its own food.

Economically, the model of a Mountain state is niche export and services rather than bulk industry. This includes things like agri-food, light industries, wood and stone craft, natural cosmetics, instrument-making, and digital services, along with a strong tech sector (coding, accounting ops, design, localization, artificial intelligence, etc.) run from well-funded hubs.

The economy can be easily boosted by a type of e-residency that becomes available to 12 million expats, allowing them to invest in the future of their homeland while co-owning a share of its success. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the minds of our young generation have thousands of startups and brilliant ideas just waiting for the right environment to spring forth – and such an environment is not currently available in the grand republic.

A Crisis of Governance

Historically, the bulk of Lebanon’s GDP is centered in Christian districts, which means that the Mountain economy is already viable. The economic problems in Lebanon are not related to scale or geography, but to governance. A small, well-governed state can be more agile and prosperous than our dysfunctional republic.

Anyone who has tried to establish a business in Lebanon in recent decades knows the following truth: Lebanon’s economy is hindered mainly by the state itself through corruption and instability. Removing the corruption mechanisms of the central state and offering better infrastructure and political stability would make the mountain economy boom almost instantly.

The root of the economic question for self-determination is political: can the state govern itself effectively or not? The economy follows good governance, accountability, anti-corruption mechanisms, and political stability. The real question is, can the Grand Republic offer any of these things in the foreseeable future, or does a self-governed Christian entity offer a better chance at that?

Self-governance, whether in a full partition scenario or expanded federalism/confederalism, will allow each community to test itself and follow its own ways of governance without the vetoes that currently plague Beirut.

In my opinion, a Christian-majority governance can be easily effective and predictable, because it already is.

We all know where the rule of law exists in Lebanon and where it doesn’t; we already know where institutions function well and where they don’t, we’re just too polite to say these things out loud. But we already know what good governance looks like; we just need a chance to implement it without the arms of the mullahs or the corruption of the sectarian system.

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This article is an excerpt from The Maronite Cause book Volume I. Our books are available on these links:

The Maronite Cause Volume II – Free PDF edition

The Maronite Cause Volume I – Free PDF edition

The Maronite Cause – Paperback Edition (Amazon)

The Maronite Cause – Kindle ebook Edition (Amazon)

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